Overview
Macro is the binding lens at 15/100 (Tightening), down hard from 22 a week ago though still above the 11 of thirty days ago. The dollar is the mechanism: DXY at 101.490 sits roughly 2.78% above its 98.748 200-day average, up 2.34% over thirty days, a structural ceiling that caps any risk impulse before the constructive on-chain lenses can express.
Underneath the lid the spring is coiling tighter. Spot 59711 still holds above realized price 53324, STH-MVRV at 1.2329 stays above its 1.0 break-even, but positioning is leaning into the fall: OI/Mcap has climbed to 2.360%, up 5.96% over thirty days back above the 2.0% saturation line, funding holds negative, and BTC DVOL has jumped 29.84% over thirty days to 46.56. Rebuilding leverage into rising volatility is the setup for a violent resolution once macro releases.
Cross-Asset Rotation reads 71/100 (Alt-led), still elevated but easing from 77 a week ago, and the Altcoin Season Index at 81.25 holds above the 75 altseason line. This is relative strength inside a falling market, not a risk-on rotation: return breadth is down 76.61% over thirty days and every sector is red.
Macro
Dollar, rates, liquidity and the exogenous backdrop.DXY at 101.490 is up 0.64% on the week and 2.34% over thirty days, sitting roughly 2.78% above its 98.748 200-day average, a widening structural tightening signal. Global liquidity is flat, indexed at 103.232 and unchanged on the week. BTC has partly recoupled to equities, with the 60-day BTC-SPX correlation at 0.389, up 65.36% over thirty days, while the BTC-dollar correlation sits at -0.347.
The dollar strength is the clean drag, but the rising equity coupling cuts both ways: BTC is re-linking to risk just as the S&P sits down 2.98% over thirty days, so the equity channel is now a second potential headwind rather than a cushion.
Macro Cumulative Returns
Each asset's price change over the last 30 days, hourly, rebased to 0%.
BTC Correlation to Macro Assets
90-day rolling return correlation to the S&P 500, gold, DXY, 10Y, VIX and oil; BTC overlaid. Past 3 years.
BTC Macro Coupling
60-day return correlation to the S&P 500 and the dollar; shaded zones mark |ρ| ≥ 0.5 tight coupling. Past 2 years.
US Dollar Index
A falling DXY eases global liquidity; 200-day average shown. Full history.
Global Liquidity vs BTC
US M2 + EU M2 + US central-bank balance sheet, indexed to a common start; BTC tracks with a ~70-90 day lead. Past 5 years.
Cycle Position
Where we stand in the cycle: cost-basis, conviction and cycle dials.Spot 59711 holds above realized price 53324, so the average coin is still in profit, but the Realized P/L ratio at 0.554 sits far below the 2.0 bear-bull line, down 64.56% over thirty days. The STH/LTH supply ratio at 0.1339 is pressed against its 0.1324 series low, down 3.57% on the month as coins migrate to long-term hands. NUPL at 0.800 remains above its four-year mean near 0.575.
Capitulation-grade cycle scores usually mark proximity to a floor, and the supply migration to long-term holders supports that read, but NUPL above its long-run mean says unrealized profit has not been fully purged, so the floor is structural rather than valuation-cheap.
BTC Price vs Realized Price
Green = below realized (unrealized loss); white = normal (within +3σ above); above +3σ shading warms yellow→red to +10σ of the 365-day spread. Full history.
Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Realized profit vs loss flows, 30-day average, log axis; below 2 = bear, the shaded 2-5 band is the bear-bull transition, above 5 = bull. Full history.
Short- vs Long-Term Holder Supply Ratio
Short-term-holder supply divided by long-term-holder supply; rising = fresh/speculative inflow, falling = coins maturing into strong hands. Bars are the 30-day change. Full history.
NUPL
Net unrealized profit/loss read against its own rolling 4-year mean (dotted) with ±1σ/±2σ bands; above = stretched profit, below = washed-out value. Full history.
Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit
Share of short-term-holder supply in profit, 7-day average, against its own 2-year ±1σ band; a break down puts the marginal buyer underwater. Full history.
Short-Term Holder MVRV
Read against its own 2-year mean ±1σ/±2σ z-score bands, not the absolute level; 1.0 = STH break-even. Full history.
Capital Flows & Liquidity
Where capital sits: stables, ETFs, exchange plumbing.ETF net flows run at -1.74M per day on a seven-day basis, deeper than the prior briefing, with the 30-day average outflow improving 61.57% off worse readings. Stablecoin supply is contracting at a 30-day rate of -2.18%, near its two-year most-negative, so dry powder is shrinking. Exchange balances keep draining, with net 30-day outflows near 48B as outflow -49.42B swamps inflow 1.40B, while spot volume delta at -0.168 on its seven-day average has tilted further toward net selling.
The constructive read is that exchange supply keeps leaving, classic basing behaviour, but the per-day ETF drain widened this week and stablecoin contraction near a two-year low means the firepower to absorb that supply is itself thinning, so the drain only helps if buyers re-arm.
Stablecoin Supply 30D Rate of Change
Aggregate stablecoin supply (USDT + USDC + DAI) as its 30-day % change; positive (green) = dry powder being minted, negative (red) = redemptions. BTC overlaid. Since Aug 2021.
Digital-Asset Treasury Net Flows
Corporate BTC treasury flows by entity, 30-day sum, with the all-company total; positive = accumulation. Past 2 years.
US Spot BTC ETF Flows
Net creations and redemptions, 7-day average; BTC overlaid. Last 90 days.
US Spot BTC ETF Trading Volume
Dollar trading turnover across the US spot BTC ETFs, 30-day average; a gauge of institutional engagement. BTC overlaid. Full history.
Exchange Net Position Change
30-day change in BTC exchange-held supply, in USD; negative (red) = net outflow / draining, positive (green) = inflow. Past 2 years.
Spot Volume Delta
Taker buy − sell volume, 7-day average (bars: green = net buying, red = selling), with a bias line = 30-day SMA − 90-day median laid over it. BTC overlaid. Past 2 years.
Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis Distribution
Where STH supply sits by acquisition price; the black line is spot. Past 3 years.