Market Compass

DXY at 101.490 is up 0.64% on the week and 2.34% over thirty days, sitting roughly 2.78% above its 98.748 200-day average, a widening structural tightening signal. Global liquidity is flat, indexed at 103.232 and unchanged on the week. BTC has partly recoupled to equities, with the 60-day BTC-SPX correlation at 0.389, up 65.36% over thirty days, while the BTC-dollar correlation sits at -0.347.

The dollar strength is the clean drag, but the rising equity coupling cuts both ways: BTC is re-linking to risk just as the S&P sits down 2.98% over thirty days, so the equity channel is now a second potential headwind rather than a cushion.

Spot 59711 holds above realized price 53324, so the average coin is still in profit, but the Realized P/L ratio at 0.554 sits far below the 2.0 bear-bull line, down 64.56% over thirty days. The STH/LTH supply ratio at 0.1339 is pressed against its 0.1324 series low, down 3.57% on the month as coins migrate to long-term hands. NUPL at 0.800 remains above its four-year mean near 0.575.

Capitulation-grade cycle scores usually mark proximity to a floor, and the supply migration to long-term holders supports that read, but NUPL above its long-run mean says unrealized profit has not been fully purged, so the floor is structural rather than valuation-cheap.

ETF net flows run at -1.74M per day on a seven-day basis, deeper than the prior briefing, with the 30-day average outflow improving 61.57% off worse readings. Stablecoin supply is contracting at a 30-day rate of -2.18%, near its two-year most-negative, so dry powder is shrinking. Exchange balances keep draining, with net 30-day outflows near 48B as outflow -49.42B swamps inflow 1.40B, while spot volume delta at -0.168 on its seven-day average has tilted further toward net selling.

The constructive read is that exchange supply keeps leaving, classic basing behaviour, but the per-day ETF drain widened this week and stablecoin contraction near a two-year low means the firepower to absorb that supply is itself thinning, so the drain only helps if buyers re-arm.

OI/Mcap at 2.360% is up 5.96% over thirty days, back further above the 2.0% saturation threshold, so the system is re-leveraging into the fall. BTC open interest at 28.25B is down 16.51% over thirty days and ETH at 14.46B is down 30.62%, a notional unwind that has not relieved the ratio because price fell faster. Perp funding holds negative, the 25Δ skew stays bid with the 1-month at 0.221 up 81.57% over thirty days, and BTC DVOL at 46.56 is up 29.84% over thirty days.

Negative funding and a persistent put bid say the crowd is positioned bearish and hedged, which is contrarian supportive, but OI/Mcap climbing back above saturation while volatility rises means any sharp move risks a liquidation cascade that amplifies it.

Long-term holders own 88.188% of supply, just off the 88.308% record and up 0.44% over thirty days, the core conviction signal. Hodler net position change at 99161 BTC remains net accumulation and has firmed from the prior briefing, even as it sits down 64.51% over thirty days. Spending stays dormant, with dormancy at 74329 pressed against its series low and down 20.02% on the month, though adjusted CDD at 0.473 is up 95.27% over thirty days as some older coins begin to stir.

The supply base is the strongest part of the engine, with holders absorbing coins and refusing to spend, but adjusted CDD nearly doubling over thirty days and binary CDD up 20% on the week are the first hints that some long-dormant supply is waking.

Fee momentum at 1.041 sits above its 1.0 firming line and is up 21.84% over thirty days, so economic throughput is improving at the margin. Active-address momentum at 0.926 stays below its 1.0 baseline, down 2.17% on the month, so user breadth is soft. Valuation runs rich: spot 59711 sits above the NVT fair-value band near 50114, a premium of roughly 19%, while small entities at 1.788 are far more active than large entities at 0.700.

Fees firming while addresses soften is a split signal, the network earning more per unit of use even as the breadth of use thins, and the NVT premium says price is still running ahead of on-chain throughput.

The Altcoin Season Index at 81.25 holds above the 75 altseason threshold but is down 7.14% on the week. Return breadth has collapsed 76.61% over thirty days to 1.18, so the rotation is concentrating into a handful of names. Over thirty days large-cap alts at -19.74% held up slightly better than BTC at -21.41%, while small caps at -24.27% lagged, and every major sector is red over ninety days with L2 at -28.72% the worst.

A high season index with collapsing breadth is internally divided: the headline says alts are leading, but the thin breadth says only a narrow cohort actually is, so this is relative strength inside a falling market rather than a risk-on rotation.